60 minutes remaining
Are you sure you want to quit ? You will lose all your answers if you exit.
Part 1
Read the text and answer questions 1–13.
Rice is a tall grass with a drooping panicle that contains numerous edible grains, and has been cultivated in China for more than 6,000 years. A staple throughout Asia and large parts of Africa, it is now grown in flooded paddy fields from sea level to high mountains and harvested three times a year. According to the Food and Health Organisation of the United Nations, around four billion people currently receive a fifth of their calories from rice.
Recently, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have slightly reduced rice consumption due to the adoption of more western diets, but almost all other countries have raised their consumption due to population increase. Yet, since 1984, there have been diminishing rice yields around the world.
From the 1950s to the early 1960s, rice production was also suffering: India was on the brink of famine, and China was already experiencing one. In the late 1950s, Norman Borlaug, an American plant pathologist, began advising Punjab State in northwestern India to grow a new semi-dwarf variety of wheat. This was so successful that, in 1962, a semi-dwarf variety of rice, called IR8, developed by the Philippine International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), was planted throughout Southeast Asia and India. This semi-dwarf variety heralded the Green Revolution, which saved the lives of millions of people by almost doubling rice yields: from 1.9 metric tons per hectare in 1950-64, to 3.5 metric tons in 1985-98.
IR8 survived because, as a semi-dwarf, it only grows to a moderate height, and it does not thin out, keel over, and drown like traditional varieties. Furthermore, its short thick stem is able to absorb chemical fertilisers, but, as stem growth is limited, the plant expends energy on producing a large panicle of heavy seeds, ensuring a greater crop.
However, even with a massive increase in rice production, semi-dwarf varieties managed to keep up with population growth for only ten years. In Africa, where rice consumption is rising by 20% annually, and where one third of the population now depends on the cereal, this is disturbing. At the current rate, within the next 20 years, rice will surpass maize as the major source of calories on that continent. Meantime, even in ideal circumstances, paddies worldwide are not producing what they once did, for reasons largely unknown to science. An average 0.8% fall in yields has been noted in rich rice-growing regions; in less ideal ones, flood, drought and salinity have meant yields have fallen drastically, sometimes up to 40%.
The sequencing of the rice genome took place in 2005, after which the IRRI developed genetically modified flood-resistant varieties of rice, called Sub 1, which produce up to four times more edible grain than non-modified strains. In 2010, a handful of farmers worldwide were planting IRRI Sub 1 rice; now, over five million are doing so. Currently, drought- and salt-resistant varieties are being trialled since most rice is grown in the great river basins of the Brahmaputra, the Irrawaddy, and the Mekong that are all drying up or becoming far saltier.
With global warming, many rice-growing regions are hotter than 20 years ago. Nearly all varieties of rice, including IR8, flower in the afternoon, but the anthers — little sacs that contain male pollen — wither and die in soaring temperatures. IRRI scientists have identified one variety of rice, known as Odisha, that flowers in the early morning, and they are in the process of genetically modifying IR8 so it contains Odisha-flowering genes, although it may be some time before this is released.
While there is a clear need for more rice, many states and countries seem less keen to influence agricultural policy directly than they were in the past. Some believe rice demand will dip in wealthier places, as occurred in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan; others consider it more prudent to devote resources to tackling obesity or to limiting intensive farming that is environmentally destructive.
Some experts say where there is state intervention it should take the form of reducing subsidies to rice farmers to stimulate production; others propose that small land holdings should be consolidated into more economically viable ones. There is no denying that land reform is pressing, but many governments shy away from it, fearing losses at the ballot box, all the while knowing that rural populations are heading for the city in droves anyway. And, as they do so, cities expand, eating up fertile land for food production.
One can only hope that the IRRI and other research institutions will spearhead half a dozen mini green revolutions, independently of uncommitted states.
Part 2
Read the text and answer questions 14–26.
As Japan builds a new generation of robot companions, U.S. firms focus on pragmatics.
Meet Wakamaru and Roomba, two householderhelper robots with very different pedigrees. Wakamaru, from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, is a waist-high bot with a canary yellow exterior and limpid eyes. It can recognize 10,000 Japanese words, identify eight family members by face or voice, remind you to make an appointment or make phone calls, and if somebody breaks into your house, send photographs of the intruder to your mobile phone. When the machine rolled off the assembly line in 2005, Mitsubishi expected U.S. sales to reach 10,000 models a year, despite the bot’s $15,000 price tag. Instead, the company sold only a few dozen orders. Wakamaru is now off the market and being rented out as a receptionist at $1,000 a day.
Roomba, by contrast, looks more like an appliance than a robotic friend. The frisbee-like disc’s sole purpose is to vacuum, which it does automatically, thanks to sensors that adjust the settings to suit different floor types, avoid drop-offs like stairs and navigate between table legs and household pets. Starting price: $130. Massachusetts firm iRobot Corp. has sold more than 5 million of the machines.
Wakamaru and Roomba represent radically different approaches to the next big thing in robotics: the use of robot assistants in the office, hospital and home. The Japanese, who have long been fascinated by the robot as android, are concentrating on making machines that look and act like human beings. U.S. firms, on the other hand, have eschewed the flashier android approach and instead are emphasizing products that, like Roomba, are narrowly targeted to specific tasks like mowing lawns, cleaning pools and taking patients’ vital signs.
So far, the success of Roomba suggests that the U.S. firms have the upper hand. But the race is only beginning and the stakes are potentially huge. The market for personal and service robots is about $3 billion now, but is expected to reach $15 billion by 2015, according to the Japan Robotics Association and market analysts like ABI Research. In 10 years or so, experts predict, sales of personal robots could surpass sales of industrial robots, now about $4.6 billion a year.
The issue for robot developers is whether the technology of artificial intelligence will allow Japanese developers to fulfill their vision of friendly robots capable of working alongside people. If so, Japan could be in a position to dominate the next phase of robotics. If not, the Americans, with their pragmatic but uninspiring designs, could win the race.
Japan approaches this new market from a position of strength. Over the past 50 years, it has become the undisputed leader in industrial robots, supplying 40 percent of the world market. At the same time, Japanese pop culture has become saturated with images of friendly droids from Manga cartoons and animé, and bots by Sony and Honda are as famous in Tokyo as Jessica Simpson is in Texas. Japan’s robot industry — with the help of $100 million in research funding from the government — is driven in large part by the dream of a day when droids will aid humans in almost every aspect of daily life.
There’s the egg-shaped PaPeRo — recently rated the most popular bot in Japan by Robot Life magazine — which selects day-care centers, singing songs and reading e-mails to children according to texted instructions from parents. There’s Actroid, a mannequinnesque gynoid who wows corporate guests with her dynamic facial expressions and cheeky conversation skills (ask her how much she weighs, and she’ll tell you what she can bench-press).
Japanese and American firms have their eyes on the same prize: the market for home health care, particularly for the elderly. As baby boomers hit retirement age, the need to monitor and assist seniors will create a surge in demand for personal-care robots, experts say. Since 2001, the Japanese government has spent $210 million on research to meet its goal of deploying robots to support its aging workforce. (It’s timeline specifies that bots should be able to straighten a room by the end of this year, make beds by 2013, and help with baths and meals by 2025.) The desire to field human-like robots, however, is an impediment. Honda, for instance, decided to keep its Asimo robot bipedal, even though its two feet are impractical in homes with stairs and clutter. The one field in which Japanese robots have a clear lead requires no practical applications: entertainment robots, a $185 million market that is expected to rise to $3 billion by 2014, according to private research firms.
All this grass-roots robotics innovation has led tech giants to predict that in the next twenty years, robots could be the biggest technological revolution since PCs and the Internet. Whether these robots are cleaning up homes or serving as co-workers, entertainers and friends depends on which vision wins out.
Part 3
Read the text and answer questions 27–40.
A There is little doubt that rates of coastal change will escalate with enhanced rates of sea level rise and increasing storminess, both of which are associated with global warming. These changes are likely to have a significant impact on coastal populations and infrastructure. Sea levels are expected to rise significantly over the next century, largely as a result of the melting of ice sheets and thermal expansion of the oceans. Global warming will also change ocean currents, world weather patterns, winds, coastal currents, waves and storms. The increase in the frequency and size of the latter, which have an enormous influence on coastal change and near-shore sediment transport, will have a major impact on the form of UK coasts.
B Geological, archaeological and historical records are used to establish the nature of past coastal change. Monitoring of coastal change is also undertaken using a broad range of techniques including airborne laser ranging technology (LIDAR) and digital aerial photogrammetry. These techniques are used to determine coastal topography, coastal erosion, and shoreline position with high accuracy. The bathymetry of offshore areas is determined by several geophysical techniques including side-scan sonar or multi-beam surveys. In the UK geoscientists are widely involved in projects that address past coastal change and monitor how coasts are changing today. The principal aim of many of these studies is to understand the natural processes that govern coastal change in order to predict the patterns and rates of future coastal evolution.
C A broad range of decision-makers, including coastal zone planners, government and authorities require accurate and well-researched information in managing the coastal zone. Much of the impetus and funding for such research is derived from the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
D Some agencies have particular responsibilities for monitoring particular aspects of coastal change. For instance, the Environment Agency has responsibilities for flooding in England and Wales. Three national agencies (English Nature, the Conservancy Council for Scotland and the Countryside Council for Wales) are responsible for preserving flora, fauna and geological features, including those along the coast. The best examples of wildlife habitats, geological features and landforms are designated as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI: there are about 6500 of these covering about 9% of the UK land area). Many surveys are carried out by the Ordnance Survey, the Hydrographic Office or the British Geological Survey. Other monitoring schemes are run by other government research institutes, universities and local government. Some funding for UK coastal projects is derived from the European Union.
E Much of this research on coastal change forms the basis for integrated coastal zone management on a local, national and international level. In the UK, Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) are required for coastal management. Each of the SMPs is required to consider coastal change and issues such as sediment transport in the near-shore zone. Most SMPs consider distinct parts of the coast, such as complete estuaries or sections of coast in which near-shore sediment is largely ‘contained’ within a coastal cell, or behaves in a consistent manner. SMPs broadly recommend, in scientific and technical terms, where: the process of erosion can be checked; the line can be held; ‘managed retreat’ of the coastline is the only option. Such evaluation is important given the high costs of coastal defences, which can only escalate in future years.
F Currently about 44% of the English and Welsh coast is protected by some form of coastal defence. Difficult decisions will need to be made to determine how this percentage will change in response to the increased rates of coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise. These decisions cannot be made without widespread consultation and will need to balance the socio-economic needs of developers, landowners and residents with coastal protection and environmental groups. Furthermore, they will need to take aspects of European legislation (e.g. the Habitats Directive) that have been incorporated into British law, into consideration.
G Coastal managers have to consider not only which parts of the coast they should attempt to defend, but also which type of defence is most appropriate. Locally it will be best to defend coastal areas using traditional constructions, such as sea-walls, dykes, groynes and breakwaters. Such engineered ‘hard’ structures are expensive and may only result in enhanced coastal erosion on adjacent coasts. The alternative approach is to work with natural processes and create ‘soft’ engineered solutions, e.g. by encouraging accumulation of sediments in selected areas. For example, sediments accumulating in estuarine salt marshes protect the estuaries and associated human infrastructure from erosion, storm surges and coastal flooding.
H Whatever approach is used, no section of coast should be studied or managed in isolation. The whole picture must be understood, in regard to changes in the past, the present position and how any coastal management scheme will be affected by future changes. The best and most sustainable options probably lie in an integrated coastal zone management approach. These may contain multiple response strategies that can be modified for different socio-economic factors and environmental conditions, working with natural processes rather than against them. Geoscientists have a key role to play in providing the foundations for such management.